Mikheil Saakashvili
A post-Soviet Intervening Variable
Individuals rarely change long-term Geopolitical trends; the system and nation-states’ imperatives and constraints drive an individual leader’s decisions rather than a leader transforming a nation-state’s normative factors or disruptions to the international order. In the US stock market -a fitting analogy- larger timeframes control smaller timeframes. In other words, if the S&P 500 crashes tomorrow or next week, the larger timeframe data supports its better to hold your position. The S&P 500’s century of data demonstrates it will recover and yield 7-10% in returns; if you focus on the larger timeframe instead of getting caught in the granular moment then invisible economic forces will correct the temporary panic. Geopolitics is this way; the larger, almost invisible global trends are more important than a leader’s agenda. Yet on the rare occasion, there are intervening variables to a model at the individual level which require attention.
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